An experiment in rolling averages. 

For my inaugural post on this blog, I've decided to begin with the team closest to my heart: Manchester United and their, fortunately, fairly successful 2022-23 season. I have examined this using a 5-game rolling average charting xG (expected goals) and xGA (expected goals against) to examine United's overall form across the season.  This served as an opportunity to learn to scrape specific data from the web, in addition to calculating and plotting the rolling average graphically. The overall data set used is located here: https://fbref.com/en/share/x4Ct3 . Unfortunately, this is partially incomplete so some results are sadly missing and have warped the overall pattern somewhat. Nonetheless some general impressions can be drawn. 

On an initial viewing, the general pattern is positive, aside from an initial struggles at the start of the season, United have generally maintained a healthy, albeit not quite elite gap, between xG and xGA. This is suggestive of a team that is both offensively and defensively sound and that, generally, ought to expect to win the majority of the time.  

If the graph is considered as a predictive tool, it appears that there may be some difficulties on the horizon. The recent period, from February to March, despite some elite production offensively, has seen an increased narrowing of the tenuous balance between xG and xGA. The attack has stagnated and declined whilst defensively United are conceding vastly more chances than in the previous 4 months. This may correlate with the 'eye test'. Recent viewers of United's games may have noted a number of seemingly fatigued performances. It's highly possible that Erik Ten Hag's preference for less rotation has resulted in an accumulation of fatigue that may prove costly moving into the final stretch of the season. This is especially concerning when the fact that United still remain in 4 competitions with no sign of any abatement in the fixture pile-up. The international break may provide some solace, whilst hopeful returns for Anthony Martial imminently and Christian Eriksen in April could inject some fresh options into Ten Hag's squad.  One hopes that United's refusal to countenance further permanent reinforcements in January does not impact either tournament competitiveness or a potential Champions League spot. Ultimately, it remains to be seen.